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Plan Now for Consumer Behavior Shifts in Fall 2025

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People behave differently during different times of the year. Many look forward to sweater weather and their pumpkin spice lattes, but that just scratches the surface of how behavior, and maybe more importantly for you, spending habits, change with the seasons.

But why should you care? Because being the keen marketer you are, you see opportunity with every subtle, imperceptible change in consumer behavior. It may just be June, technically not even summer yet, but you need to start preparing for shifts in consumer behavior well in advance. 

Fall Means Planned Purchases

While summer may be the time for spontaneous purchases, fall is when people buckle down and start planning their spending and making practical purchases. In fact, the beginning of fall coincides with one of the times of the year when consumers spend the most: back-to-school. 

Back-to-school spending exceeded 40 billion dollars for the first time in 2023. It is, in fact, one of the times of year when people spend the most. People who back-to-school shopped in 2024 (parents, most likely) spent $874.68 on average. That was even greater for back-to-college shopping, which was $1,364.75.

How Weather Affects Spending Habits

You know when the days get shorter and the weather gets colder, and you get a sudden burst of energy and want to go out for a shopping spree? Us neither. Fall means that people are going to spend more time inside, and any impulsive purchases will probably be made online.

The wild thing is that it's not just the seasons. Day-to-day variations in weather can have drastic effects on consumer behavior. Of all the factors that affect consumer behavior, weather has the second most influence, only after the economy. 

While it’s likely impractical to start adjusting your marketing strategy according to the 10-day forecast, you can still plan for seasonal shifts in consumer behavior brought on by weather. One study found that, perhaps unsurprisingly, when there’s more sunlight, people are willing to spend more for the same products. Anticipating the shorter days that come with fall, consider sprinkling in some promotions that highlight your sales and discounts.

Products With Increased Sales in the Fall

Changing habits mean some categories see a boost in sales during this time as well. Let’s take a look at a few items that seem to fly off the shelves. 

  • Seasonal Fashion & Outerwear: The cooler temperatures naturally mean folks will be bundling up. Think sweaters, scarfs, boots, and coats. When practicality meets trendy, you end up with UGGs.
  • Home Decor & Holiday Items: In celebration of the holiday season, you’ll see home decor and holiday items all around you. Thanksgiving theme dinnerware or kitschy decorations can show people how much you really care about turkeys.
  • Comfort Foods & Fall-Flavored Products: We know it’s about as basic as it comes, but if it’s pumpkin spice or cinnamon flavored, it sells more during fall.  It doesn’t even have to be edible, as candles with those scents also experience skyrocketing sales. 
  • Halloween Merchandise: Only Christmas can stand toe-to-toe with Halloween when it comes to holiday specific spending. Think about it? You’ve got all the spooky decorations, costumes, specialty snacks/treats, and more. 
  • Electronics & Toys (Early Holiday Shopping): Some people take this time of year to be responsible and get holiday shopping done early. Retailers often run sales and other special events, which makes buying ideal during the fall. 

How to Market if Business Slows Down in Fall

You may work for the North Face or Spirit Halloween, but let’s assume for a minute that your business doesn’t fall into the aforementioned categories and actually does less sales in the fall. How then can you plan your marketing around an expected slowdown?

The secret to that is knowing exactly whom to market to. A paper from the Harvard Business Review (Harvard is considered by many to be a reputable academic institution) analyzes four types of consumers and the risk each poses to a possible sales downturn based on the type of product you’re selling.

They categorize consumers by “Slam-on-the-Brakes,” “Pained-but-Patient,” “Comfortably Well-Off,” and  “Live-for-Today” and products into essentials, treats, postponables, and expendables. It goes without saying, but expendables, those being unnecessary purchases, are the first to go, and the “Slam-on-the-Brakes” consumer is the first to stop buying them. If your product falls into this category, you’ll need to target your marketing at higher income consumers and those more susceptible to impulse spending.

The paper also notes that repeat customers are an essential source of cashflow when business slows down. If you run a seasonal business that does better in the spring and summer than in the fall, focus on repeat customers during the slow times, and focus on growing and finding new business during the busier seasons.

Increases in E-Commerce

It’s probably not surprising that with the Christmas shopping season starting in fall, it’s also the best season for e-commerce. Q4 experiences by far the most e-commerce spending, with spending increasing every year. This past Q3, there was $288.78 billion in e-commerce spending in the U.S., which increased to $352.90 billion in Q4.

The holiday shopping season, along with the aforementioned changes in weather, mean you should prioritize e-commerce during fall. Consider allocating more of your budget towards digital and social media advertising during this time of year, relative to others, to compensate for decreasing foot traffic.

Understanding their behaviors, how and when they change, is among the most important factors when creating an impactful marketing strategy. As the leaves change, so should your marketing, but maybe you don't know quite where to begin? Luckily for you, we're got geniuses that can help you a game plan for the fall, and we promise none of our ideas involve pumpkin spice. Unless you're into it. Fill out the form below and let us know what time works best for you.